Elon Musk would like to sell you 5% of a company that lost $4.94 billion last year, at a $2 trillion valuation. The S-1 landed yesterday. The roadshow starts June 4.
SpaceX was profitable in 2024. Then Musk merged xAI into it — his AI chatbot company, which burns $14 billion in cash per year — via an all-stock deal, meaning he paid himself in SpaceX equity to absorb an asset that loses money at industrial scale. The $4.94 billion loss is the receipt.
The one good business is Starlink, the satellite internet service: $11.4 billion in revenue, 63% EBITDA margins. You are being asked to value Starlink, plus loss-making rockets, plus a Grok chatbot bleeding cash, at $2 trillion. The S-1 justifies this by citing a $28.5 trillion total addressable market. Part of that market is Mars. Mars has no customers yet.
Musk controls 85.1% of the votes through super-voting shares and cannot be removed. The float is 5%, well below normal. U.S. public pension funds have formally called the governance structure "extreme."
They will buy it anyway.